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by orphancarguyPE  Yesterday

The US has lots of natural gas, but OIL from fracking is rare and only found in a few distinct spots. That is why the EIA and IEA both say 2020-2026 for fracked oil in the US declining. A lot of the discussion about the future of oil is surreal and not based on observable reality, more hope and hype, and definitely a bad sense of math, and no knowledge of what ERoEI really means. I don't look at the market or pump prices, but the long I'm getting out of oil in my personal life. Just removed my oil furnace, cut my gas and diesel use 75%. The next decade should be okay-ish..but if you aren't prepared the decades after that could be very bumpy indeed.

by orphancarguyPE  Yesterday

Oil sands have an even higher 50% breakeven point (ie, half will make money, half will lose money) and existing projects still running are one thing at $80, but with new needing $90-110 sustained for years to invest tens of billions, they are halted or dead until it climbs that high. So, no Keystone XL unless tar sands are a full go. (BTW, its the Kock Brothers who stand to make an additional $100+ Billion in profit from their stranded resources if Keystone goes ahead, much much less for Canadians) So, if no pipeline, then trains are the alternative--except that they aren't viable. So, a wholesale expansion is just not doable unless extremely high prices prevail for decades. OIL fracking is due to plateau between 2020-2026 anyway, then decline, so no reason to build a 50 year pipeline. Pipelines are only cheap if 40+ years and high stead volume. Alaska's Alyeska might shut down any old time because throughput is almost too low to prevent freezeup, and that would strand Alaska crude in

by orphancarguyPE  Yesterday

Part of the 'justification' for oil trains was the delay in pipelines. Pipelines are capital intensive ($$$) and need a long lead time from the same location to break even. Fracking by its nature moves so only the 100 years long oil sands make 'sense' for a pipeline like KXL. The theory was that you could chop and change trains relatively easily, and the inherent cost could be swallowed. Lets say $25-30 by truck, $15-20 by train, $5 by pipeline, per barrel. Fracking breaks even 50% of the time at $80+, so $60-65 net to producers is slow bankruptcy time. It worked with $100 a barrel oil so $85-80 net was doable.

by MissyLou9164  Oct 28, 2014

SUVFan is celebrating a birthday & GB Anniversary tomorrow (Tuesday). Let's have a party !!

by baitmn  Oct 27, 2014

keep it growing

by Gnusman53  Oct 25, 2014

The loons are out tonight on the "Full Credit" thread...... (grin)....

by baitmn  Oct 25, 2014

Well I do not grow melons, but I have Satusma, Naval Orange here, cucumber when in season, Keep up the good work,,

by baitmn  Oct 24, 2014

Glad to have you as my newest buddy, Keep up the good work, Your Gas Buddy, That is a neat Avator, where did you find Boxed Mellons???

by MidNJ  Oct 23, 2014

Thanks for noticing. -- There are many interesting things happening with the news feed. It is important to keep involved an trust our senses and gut feelings.

by epf  Oct 19, 2014

Would love to help but have been permanently barred from posting on GasBuddy

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