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Analyst Makes Bombshell Prediction Of $50 Oil, And More Production Than We Could Possibly Know What

Business Insider -- For the US economy, this would be a 'Black Swan' of a totally different variety.

In Bank of America/Merrill Lynch's 2013 Energy Outlook, analyst Sabine Schels and colleagues make a shocking prediction about the possible path of West Texas Intermediate oil.

Surging US shale oil output creates risk of $50 WTI North America’s energy supplies are surging while the rest of the world continues to fight for scarce molecules of oil and gas. On our estimates, onshore US crude oil output now vastly exceeds previous growth rates in liquids and nat gas, particularly in Lower 48 states. With profitability for US domestic oil producers very high and no change in sight to US rules preventing crude oil exports, we expect WTI prices to continue to lag international prices. Indeed, we see a risk of WTI te


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Submitted Dec 02, 2012 By: skb69sa
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REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
honda0105
Champion Author Tallahassee

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Message Posted: Dec 6, 2012 4:54:49 AM

diesel still up and going higher again.
honda0105
Champion Author Tallahassee

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Message Posted: Dec 5, 2012 4:44:11 AM

I won't hold my breath.
DanMtz
Champion Author Oakland

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Message Posted: Dec 3, 2012 6:56:56 PM

But, at some price point it doesn't make sense to produce oil and so the supply decreases...
WalkingWV
Champion Author West Virginia

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 10:16:32 PM

Pfft, yes, $50 oil and still $3 gas. yippee
prcoqui
Champion Author Maryland

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 8:08:26 PM

In his dreams.
underbird10
Veteran Author Atlanta

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 5:19:58 PM

The most important statement in that article: "With profitability for US domestic oil producers very high and no change in sight to US rules preventing crude oil exports, we expect WTI prices to continue to lag international prices."

What is important about it is that we will continue to allow domestic oil monopolies to exploit our resources and sell to the highest bidder on the open market. Our fuel and commodity prices will therefore be determined by global markets, not domestic markets. Meanwhile, the monopolies get richer while everyone else gets poorer.
camaro_man
Champion Author Kitchener-Waterloo

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 4:39:17 PM

yeah right,,like that will happen...
gas_too_high
Champion Author Columbus

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 3:15:09 PM

Quite interestin. I'm not sure if I believe it though. That would mean gas prices at the pump should go down significantly, which in this year where pump prices in most of the country never went below $3 is hard to believe.

I found this interesting:

" With profitability for US domestic oil producers very high and no change in sight to US rules preventing crude oil exports..."

I had no idea that was true. I hope at the least there are exceptions for Canada and Mexico.

GTH
wshutton
Champion Author Albuquerque

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 3:08:00 PM

This just in: "Analyst Wants Press Attention!"
CheckitoutGuy
Champion Author San Diego

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 2:58:07 PM

could be good?
7SPEEDY7
Champion Author Flint

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 2:36:52 PM

Drill Baby Drill!!
diesel8888
Champion Author Salt Lake City

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:48:15 PM

Sounds like this article was written in a bar during happy hour....
nehemiah
Champion Author Portland

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:39:18 PM

it's easy to make prediction
Romey08
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:38:02 PM

No more imports needed and we can finally get out of the middle east.
Garston
Champion Author Maine

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:36:48 PM

Of course
momof5MN
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:36:28 PM

EPA will make quick work of this.
suzyq2007
Champion Author Dallas

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:36:27 PM

we can only hope
PetroCrap
Veteran Author Toronto

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:36:27 PM

SO WHAT!!! $50 oil does not turn into $1/gal for gasoline or diesel.The oil companies will just do a lot of "refinery maintenance" to make sure the supply of refined product stays low enough to keep the prices high enough so that some yahoo in a suit can take home a bigger bonus than last year.
ezone
Champion Author Florida

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:36:11 PM

While it makes for interesting reading, I don't think a glut of domestically produced oil is a real concern under the leadership (?) of Emperor Obozo.
DesertRat2011
Champion Author Riverside

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:35:21 PM

Yea right
GManCo
Champion Author Colorado Springs

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:34:31 PM

When we drill for our own oil, the price will come down. THAT IS NO SURPRISE.
Gramps001
Champion Author North Carolina

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:32:31 PM

I'll have what Joe is drinking or taking!
tomok
Champion Author Portland

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:32:24 PM

Analyst Makes Bombshell Prediction Of $50 Oil, And More Production Than We Could Possibly Know What(?) - that would be nice but $50 Oil will Not happen and there will be More production of oil and natural gas from US shale. Naural Gas production is exceeding the demand and the price of natural gas is going down fast. Gas prices going down at the pump is 'a good thing' for a much better economy, more than what Sneeky could ever hope to accomplish in the last four years or the next four years. The price at the pump needs to go down to $2/gallon, *$3, *$3.50/gallon or *$4.00 is Not the new low!
More refineries is Not the answer either, keep the exported fuel and natural gas here. If Big Oil can produce that much fuel for export, there is No need for More refineries! The only reason Sneeky has Not limited fuel exporting is that it's paying for his huge overspending of the taxpayers money.
Whatever the size or shape of the vehicle, vehicle manufactures Produce and the population ‘Drives’ vehicles with high MPG, are very safe, reliable, have a ‘reasonable’ cost and a good ‘value’ for the money.
The price of fuel at the pump is too high!
XII/XXII/MMXII!
bmsgolf
Champion Author Amarillo

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:32:00 PM

Lets see!
smoketown
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:31:50 PM

Speculators will fix that.............
BudsterMO
Champion Author Kansas City

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:31:22 PM

It could work!
fieldt
Champion Author Lansing

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:30:22 PM

Doubt it, but watch the economy friggen take off if it happens.
Goatroper47
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:27:55 PM

What color is the sky in his world?
postcard9
Champion Author Massachusetts

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:26:42 PM

Yeah right.
bigmace111
Champion Author Albany

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:26:41 PM

I hope so, but I don't think that it will happen.
MJIOWA
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:24:38 PM

i like it
TA33
Champion Author Massachusetts

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:22:10 PM

Ok
bluetatanka
Champion Author Philadelphia

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:15:44 PM

Ah, c'mon!
amayne11
Champion Author Vancouver

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:14:12 PM

I wish
cutter1330
Champion Author Oklahoma

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:11:47 PM

Bet the speculators slap this analyst cross-eyed!!
mandoid
Champion Author Alabama

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:11:29 PM

very much doubt this will happen, but if it does...
sp364TN
Veteran Author Memphis

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:11:17 PM

sounds good
Stevedog
Champion Author Michigan

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:08:12 PM

a small group of people getting their opinion posted online
manaknight14
All-Star Author Pennsylvania

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:04:47 PM

The chart showing how much oil is being shipped by rail is astounding. This has a lot to do with the Obama administration's blocking of the Keystone project that would increase our pipeline infrastructure. One of the biggest beneficiaries of all that rail shipping is Obama's buddy Warren Buffett.
Ken2OD
Champion Author Grand Rapids

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:04:26 PM

Man, what is this dude smokin'?
cucamongacurtis
Champion Author San Bernardino

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:04:21 PM

And gasoline is still too expensive.
NavyStore
Champion Author Seattle

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:03:25 PM

So the GOP blames Obama for preventing domestic drilling - which he obviously has not - and now we are predicting so much of those products that the oil companies MUST export it in order to stay profitable, completely gutting the idea behind domestic drilling (lower prices and energy independence)...

Only in America!!
autohio
Champion Author Ohio

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:01:15 PM

Uh huh
gamalerin
Champion Author Tampa

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:59:43 PM

I don't think so.
AcuraTSX
Champion Author Ohio

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:58:43 PM

Not part of Obama's plan.
Samo1961
Champion Author Los Angeles

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:58:12 PM

This is totally possible, but I wonder if gas prices will also be drastically lowered.
tdc007
Champion Author Lexington

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:56:56 PM

A nice dream.
GrandAmNC
Veteran Author North Carolina

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:55:39 PM

Keep dreaming
05HD
All-Star Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:55:37 PM

I PREDICT ????????????????????????????? DUH.
abacus44
Champion Author Toms River

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:55:28 PM

As if this is believable
Cableman66
Champion Author North Carolina

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:53:22 PM

This I have to see. Wonder what the Bummer will do about this.
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