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Renewables to Rival Coal for Power Generation in 2035

Bloomberg -- Renewable energy is set to rival coal as the main generator of the world’s electricity by 2035 as the costs of technology fall and subsidies rise, the International Energy Agency said.
Wind farms, solar parks and hydroelectric dams are forecast to become the second biggest power generator in 2015 and rise to almost a third of all generation in 2035, a level approaching that of coal, the Paris-based agency that advises 28 nations on energy policy said today in its annual outlook.
“A steady increase in hydropower and the rapid expansion of wind and solar power has cemented the position of renewables as an indispensable part of the global energy mix,” the IEA said. “The rapid increase in renewable energy is underpinned by falling technology costs, rising fossil-fuel prices and carbon pricing,


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Submitted Nov 12, 2012 By: mastermariner
Category: Daily News Article Discussions > Topics Add to favorite topics  
Author Topic: Renewables to Rival Coal for Power Generation in 2035 Back to Topics
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drpepperTX
Champion Author Texas

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Message Posted: Nov 13, 2012 9:13:50 PM

LOL, MidNJ, that's two questions! The answer to the second question....is yes we do!
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MAC48
Champion Author Dallas

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Message Posted: Nov 13, 2012 9:03:36 PM

Note that the projection by the International Energy Agency (IEA) saying that renewable energy generation of electric power, a.k.a. clean energy, will be almost equal to the electric power generated by coal by 2035 is based on massive governmental subsidies and governmental use mandates such as California’s regulation requiring that 20% of the electric power consumed in California be generated by renewable sources by 2013 before non-attainment penalties kick in.

Remember that whenever a "Use Standard" is needed it means that the market, the citizens or both will not support whatever the standard is designed to accomplish. A "Use Standard" is really a use mandate and a mandate is needed because the initiative being standardized is either not wanted by the public, not efficient, not effective, not cost justified or a combination of the previous reasons. Just say no to such foolishness as laws requiring the use of any product or service by using your vote to require that the free market decides what product or services are offered or be prepared to pay dearly in terms of a carbon tax and the loss of freedom of choice.

The US national Renewable Fuels Standard has saddled us with the ethanol industry & the very powerful ethanol lobby. Does anyone really want another “ethanol” type debacle in the providing of electric energy in their life?
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MidNJ
Champion Author New Jersey

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Message Posted: Nov 13, 2012 5:18:47 AM

Dr. Pep, just one question: Why is Texas the largest producer of wind energy (by far) of all the USA states? Do some Texans know something that others don't?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Texas
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drpepperTX
Champion Author Texas

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 11:21:49 PM

Despite the "scary" sounding numbers posted below by nsdp, the EIA March 14, 2012 reports on coal reserves, which include the USGS PRB (Gillette) study, show total US reserves "estimated to contain 485 billion short tons. In the United States, coal resources are larger than remaining natural gas and oil resources. Annually, EIA reports remaining tons of coal in the demonstrated reserve base (DRB), which is comprised of coal resources that have been identified to specified levels of accuracy and may support economic mining under current technologies."

The latest US total annual consumption (2010) shows just over 1,000,000,000 short tons of coal used.

The math:
485,000,000,000 / 1,000,000,000 = 485 years

Lets say coal usage doubles to 2 billion short tons per year for grins and giggles.

485,000,000,000 / 2,000,000,000 = 242.5 years

Ain't math grand?

[Edited by: drpepperTX at 11/13/2012 12:24:31 AM EST]
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nsdp
Champion Author San Antonio

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 8:57:27 PM

DrPepper The USGS used 10,210 data points from new well logs in their 2008 and 2012 updates compared to the Wyoming study which used 1267 well logs. They also have a detailed section debunking a number of prior studies that used flawed analysis of formation trends depths and faulting. The Wyoming study also assumes the removal of the joint use line between Sheridan and Gillette which would make the workings of other mines difficult. USGS also factored in the costs of transportation to determine whether or not the coal is economically minable rather than its mere existence ans assume it will be mined regardless of cost. Right now transportation charges ($55) ton average to Texas are higher per MMBTU than the current day ahead price ont he ICE of $3.54 at the Houston ship Channel or Katy.

If you believe in the Mad Hatter's statement "there I have said it three times it must be true" then you can find anything you want in a pseudo scientific study on the web.

[Edited by: nsdp at 11/12/2012 9:58:20 PM EST]
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listerone
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 8:22:29 PM

Hey,algore made a billion thanks to "climate change".This nation's 14% unemployed will be thrilled by that.
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Eugenian
Champion Author Oregon

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 6:00:39 PM

How about giving a crap for future generations, Jeff4U?
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drpepperTX
Champion Author Texas

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 3:53:23 PM

Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 2:00:28 PM
by nsdp
"The coal industry has been "high grading "mining the western coal. A USGS study done under the Bush Adm shows currently open mines in Wyoming Powder River Basin will be out of production by 2023 at the current 450million tons per year rate."
======================================================
Interesting and strange, the Wyoming Mining Association studies show a different future.

"At current production rates of 450 million tons per year, Powder River Basin reserves would support over 400 years of continuous production. Even if production DOUBLED, there would be enough reserves to last over 200 years. As mining technology and extraction strategies continue to advance, another 300 BILLION tons of PRB reserves could be produced that would extend the production horizon into the distant future."

[Edited by: drpepperTX at 11/12/2012 4:53:54 PM EST]
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drpepperTX
Champion Author Texas

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 3:38:57 PM

LOL, this is not Bloomberg saying anything, it's the IEA, YumaFellow.

The facts are the US produces over 1 billion tons per year, a little less currently with cheap NG. That's still about 35% of the world’s coal supply. Second only to China.

US coal reserves contain more energy than the entire world’s oil reserves.

And the US has over a 250-year supply of coal and that may be even longer as NG replaces some coal usage.
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Catfish93001
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 3:37:03 PM

This needs to happens a lot sooner.
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YumaFellow
Champion Author Arizona

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 2:31:03 PM

Another source saying that the future is away from fossil fuels. The last I looked, Bloomberg was not exactly a tree-hugger information source.
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nsdp
Champion Author San Antonio

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 2:00:28 PM

The coal industry has been "high grading "mining the western coal. A USGS study done under the Bush Adm shows currently open mines in Wyoming Powder River Basin will be out of production by 2023 at the current 450million tons per year rate. Newer mines will have double the mining costs due to thicker overburdens and necessity to control ground water. Add to that cost, the cost of transportation will probably be hihger than the cost of NG. It costs about $4billion per year to import oil to mine and transport coal. That is about 40 million barrels of imported oil.
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YaBassa
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 12:28:55 PM

This needs to happen 10 years earlier
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1OILMAN
Champion Author Alabama

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 12:24:32 PM

Never happen.
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drpepperTX
Champion Author Texas

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 12:21:33 PM

IEA = Incredibly Erroneous Agency
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Jeff4U
Champion Author Atlanta

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 11:15:51 AM

By 2035? At 79, I'll be too old to give a crap.
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Nancy&Len
Champion Author Cleveland

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 11:07:20 AM

I'll be dead by the then.
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FluffyDogAttack
Champion Author Riverside

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 10:47:20 AM

"Carbon Pricing"

*shakes head*
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peakkeller
Champion Author Colorado Springs

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 10:21:04 AM

Great!
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BudsterMO
Champion Author Kansas City

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:56:20 AM

Wait until Hydrogen Fuel Cell energy kicks in, that will move the renewable energy needle forward and faster than wind and solar.
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Wizrd03
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:47:58 AM

"Renewable energy is set to rival coal as the main generator of the world’s electricity by 2035 as the costs of technology fall and subsidies rise, the International Energy Agency said"

When it can run 24/7/365 without subsidies it can rival coal, anything else is a joke.

"The rapid increase in renewable energy is underpinned by falling technology costs, rising fossil-fuel prices and carbon pricing,...."

The last two words say it all!
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mattymattmatt
Champion Author Scranton

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:32:42 AM

In 2035!? What kind of story is this? How can this be considered reporting? How are we are to start talking about the distant future and what anything is going to look like with some degree of certainty? Things change drastically from year to year. This is stretching it when it comes to reporting, I would say.
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FogCitySpotter
Champion Author San Francisco

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:32:38 AM

That's a good thing. As long as the government isn't ringing the game.
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TBRR
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:31:24 AM

important words in the article "and Subsides rise". also just think about the massive layoffs in the coal industry and the drop in tax base where the shuttered mines are. more ghost towns in the making.

PUSH WORK ETHIC, NOT REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH
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rx7racerca
Champion Author Calgary

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:25:04 AM

I have some doubt about hydro continuing to expand much - in North America and Europe, we're a bit short of rivers left to dam, although run-of-the-river power generation might expand hydro capacity.
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rippertoo
Champion Author Tacoma

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:21:43 AM

Coal has "NO' redeeming value.
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acvw74
Champion Author Missouri

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:20:14 AM

Steps in the right direction
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Chinto12
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:19:26 AM

talk talk talk talk talk. They have been promising this for decades. Just talk
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OOXXFF
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:19:02 AM

Good. Maybe we can reduce the time for this to happen.
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Don20
Champion Author Oklahoma City

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:18:21 AM

hydroelectric dams are forecast to become the second biggest power generator in 2015....

Hydroelectric is not new, it has been around for hundred years....
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belladog
Champion Author Mobile

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:15:03 AM

ok
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WhiskersTheCat
Champion Author Austin

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:14:21 AM

2035!?! I might be dead by then!
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knifeman9
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:14:01 AM

This is science fiction at its best. Keep dreaming
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Kaiyne
Champion Author Chicago

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:13:23 AM

The world ends in 2012!
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Cableman66
Champion Author North Carolina

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:12:46 AM

Ok.
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homespesial
All-Star Author Seattle

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:11:11 AM

but i think we will not get cheaper electricity...
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JohnofGB
Champion Author Flint

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:10:59 AM

Don't hold your breath.
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jayrad1957
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:10:11 AM

Good. The way it should be.
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JCS
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:09:46 AM

waste of tax $
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DallasTodd
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:09:35 AM

Diversity is the only way to the future.
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civicdutie
Champion Author Rochester

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:08:54 AM

Coal is the fuel of the third-world country...of yesterday.
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siralexe
Veteran Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:08:50 AM

going the right way
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Grinch09
Champion Author Grand Rapids

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:07:41 AM

OK
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MBAcura
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:07:32 AM

My kids will be thrilled.
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bouncing4fun
All-Star Author Sacramento

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:06:34 AM

Thanks for the info.
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kishoreCA
Champion Author Ventura

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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:06:10 AM

we are predicting something which is almost 25 years from now. let's see.
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silverfoxv65
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:04:19 AM

Just another prediction!
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#12#_vabchusa
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:04:17 AM

Sounds good to me.
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99church
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:01:40 AM

Good
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mysub
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Message Posted: Nov 12, 2012 9:01:34 AM

We'll have to wait and see.
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